Normalcy Bias: We Live in a Dynamic World (But People Don’t Believe It)

Something that consistently surprises me is how many people have a fundamentally static worldview. Their motto appears to be: Things are as they are and nothing will change. Never mind that history is full of massive change. And even more surprising: once a huge change has occurred the new situation becomes the new accepted normal.

The COVID19 crisis is case in point. The force of change, in the form of a virus that can be spread asymptomatically, was already clearly visible in January. The majority of people, however, were going after their lives as if nothing was happening and as if no change would be coming well into March. It was a small minority who were screaming about the need to prepare and to take drastic measures. This bit of recent history is reasonably well understood.

Now that we are in the depth of the crisis, however, the lockdown and fear are rapidly becoming the new normal. Now I hear from friends how they are “settling in for the long run.” I see forecasts that this crisis will prevent students from going to college in the fall. Very few people now seem to believe that this could actually be over faster.

And yes, to be clear, there are definitely scenarios where the crisis drags on and certainly where the economic downturn is extended, especially here in the US due to lots of personal and small business bankruptcies. Still, it is worth considering the factors that could contribute to a faster recovery. There is now tons of work on possible treatments. There are massive efforts underway to create a vaccine. Testing will be available widely and contact tracing will be facilitated by mobile phone location (and/or bluetooth handshake). There will be masks for everyone.

We have made some wild technological progress in the last decade that might come into play here. We can now write DNA (not just read it), which lets us create precise synthetic viruses. While that has potentially scary applications, it also means we can crank out vaccine candidates in totally new ways. There are also breakthroughs in growing and reproducing antibodies, where we can leverage antibodies from people who have developed resistance.

The tendency to see the current state of the world as the normal that will not change is sometimes called “normalcy bias.” This is fundamentally about the difference between a static and a dynamic conception of the world. Entrepreneurs and startups investors have that dynamic conception that change is possible and even more that they can bring about that change. That’s why they were among the ones who pointed out we were headed for crisis and that’s why they are now the most optimistic that we will get out of it.